The Surprising Reason You're Going To Die

Everybody understands that exercise is good for you. Few people understand just how good it is for you, and more specifically the consequences to your health as your fitness level goes down. That is the topic of this episode of the podcast/newsletter.

We discuss these things known as hazard ratios. In our context, hazard ratios are simply comparing two groups of people. We are looking at all-cause mortality risk (basically risk of dying) between people with a certain disease and people who do not have the disease. For example, if you have hypertension, you have a hazard ratio of 1.14 (on average). This means that at any moment in time, your risk of all-cause mortality is 14% higher than someone without hypertension. We also discussed the following conditions:

-Cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio of 1.28 (28% higher risk of all-cause mortality)

-Cancer: hazard ratio of 1.33 (33% higher risk of all-cause mortality)

-Diabetes: hazard ratio of 1.34 (34% higher risk of all-cause mortality)

-Smoking: hazard ratio of 1.4

-Chronic kidney disease: hazard ratio of 1.49

So everybody probably gets the point. Smoking is bad. Having any of the above listed diseases is bad. Where things get interesting is when you look at hazard ratios comparing different groups of people and their fitness levels. For example, if you look at somebody in the top 2% of VO2 max for their age and sex and compare them to somebody in the 25th-50th percentile for their age and sex (so someone just below average), the person in the 25th-50th percentile VO2 max carries a hazard ratio of 2.88! It is crazy how high the hazard ratio jumps. If you compare a top 2% person to somebody in the bottom 25% VO2 max for their age and sex, the hazard ratio of the bottom 25% person jumps to over 4! Here is where that data came from.

What about muscle mass? Instead of looking at VO2 max as the variable of interest, what if we switch to muscle mass? In this study it was concluded that those with low muscle mass were at 40-50% greater risk of all-cause mortality compared to controls (hazard ratio of 1.4-1.5). Those with low muscle mass and metabolic syndrome (which means you have 3 of the following 5: increased belly fat, high blood pressure, high fasting glucose, low HDL, and high triglycerides) had a 3 times greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio of 3).

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Simplified Takeaways…

1. As your VO2 max and muscle mass decline, your risk of all-cause mortality goes up…by a Shocking Amount!

2. This data puts a whole new spin on the importance of exercise.

3. The goal is to build up as much muscle mass and aerobic capacity now to give yourself the best chance of combating the natural decline of aging.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute the practice of medicine, nursing, or other professional healthcare services, including the giving of medical advise. No doctor/patient relationship is formed. The use of information on this newsletter or materials linked from this newsletter is at the user’s own risk. The content of this newsletter is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advise, diagnosis, or treatment. Users should not disregard, or delay in obtaining, medical advise for any medical condition they may have, and should seek the assistance of their health care professionals for any such conditions.